CCT

CCT – DBSVickers

11 June 2007
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Sells Wisma Technip

Wisma Technip sale. CCT intends to sell Wisma Technip to Quill Capita Trust (“QCT”) for RM125m (S$56.1m) through asset securitisation vehicle Aragorn in which CCT owns 100% of the junior bonds. CCT would gain about S$2m from transaction, expected to complete by 4Q07, pending a funding raising exercise by QCT for the acquisition.

QCT as main channel of growth in Malaysia. While it’s the first asset sale by an S-REIT since its inception, it’s CCT’s strategy to focus on growth in the Malaysian office market through its 30% strategic stake in listed investment vehicle QCT. We believe this is a positive for QCT (Buy, TP RM2.37) which would benefit from growth through acquisitions as Capitaland’s main platform for opportunities in Malaysia and Capitaland’s 28%-owned incubator, Malaysia Commercial Development Fund (MCDF).

Minimal impact, TP S$2.97 unchanged. We like CCT’s platform of growth in Malaysia through QCT, but see a small, albeit positive impact on CCT in the near term. While CCT would primarily remain Singaporecentric, we continue to see organic growth through strong positive rental reversions for CCT’s portfolio. On the acquisitions front, 3rd party acquisitions continue to elude CCT at this point since the HSBC acquisition in 2005, apart from the injection of 60% stake in Raffles City from developer sponsor Capitaland in 2006. With the sale of Wisma Technip, this would reduce distribution income estimates in FY08 by 0.8% with DCF based target price of S$2.97 unchanged. Maintain Hold.

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Office REITs – DBS

11 June 2007
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Riding on asset reflation

All-time high for office property. Office asset values continue to heat up, with transacted prices hitting new highs and now past the last peak, driven by property funds active in asset transactions. With the previous high for office assets set by the sale of 7 floors of Prudential Towers by Straits Steamship Land (Keppel Land), a record of S$2,200 psf set in 1996, office capital values have now hit an all-time high with latest sale of 1 Finlayson Green by Hong Leong to UK-based property fund Develica at unit price of S$2,650 psf (S$2,470 assuming full efficiency). This transaction is hot on the heels of the recent sale of Parakou Building at Robinson Road for S$2,013 psf.

Asset revaluation across office REITs set to continue. Along with the latest year-end revaluation, the Singapore office portfolio for S-REITs has been revalued upwards (CCT +10%, Suntec +30%, K-REIT +7.3%, Allco +7%). We expect asset reflation for office S-REITs to continue, with growth in average rents to boost office asset appraisals.

Boom and bane for office Reits. Office REITs are direct beneficiaries of asset reflation from potential upward revaluation based on market comparison of market transactions. However, with the current bullish outlook for Singapore office rentals, price expectations of asset owners have also escalated, compressing physical yields to lower levels (below 3% for the case of the Temasek Tower acquisition by MGPA). Yield accretiveness of acquisitions are reduced, and coupled with strong competition for assets from private property funds with more flexibility and less stringent regulations on investment and access to funds, S-REITs in our view are currently priced out of the market for commercial assets.

Overseas expansion would be a natural course to drive acquisition growth. K-REIT stands out in asset reflation scenario. While we prefer the DCF approach in valuing S-REITs because it takes into account the intrinsic cashflows generation ability of the underlying assets, RNAV approach could also possibly breach the gap, as it factors in asset pricing by market players acquiring assets at capital values pricing in future rental growth prospects. In an asset reflation scenario, K-REIT stands out with potential upside of 93% versus CCT (-2.7%), Suntec (+7.3%) and Allco (+48%). We have BUY recommendation for K-REIT with target price of S$3.70 per unit based on DCF estimates.

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Singapore Reits – UBS

5 June 2007
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Global Equity Research PT adjustments following rise in spot risk free rate

Event – PT revisions downwards by average -1.8%
We have moved the spot risk free in our DCF model to 2.9% for yr0-10, from 2.7% following recent interest movements. Our terminal rate (yr10+) is unchanged at 3.6%.

Impact – Downgrade CCT and SUN

This move lifts our price targets downwards by -1.8% on average. Due to recent price movements we have moved CCT from a Neutral 2 to a Reduce 2 and SUN from a Buy 1 to a Neutral 1. We believe the office rental uptrend has been largely priced in and it is increasingly difficult for these REITs to make yield-accretive acquisitions domestically.

Action – Overweight Industrial & Retail

Our key picks among the SREITs are 1. Mapletree (acquisition upside potential not priced in) 2. Cambridge (re-rating potential & possible acquisition upside) =3. Domestic retail – FCT and CMT (organic growth likely to continue to exceed expectations). We maintain a Buy 2 on KREIT due to the strong expected rental reversions which we believe have not been priced in.

Valuation

The sector continues to offer relatively attractive pricing currently, with a 4.3% CY’07 yield, 6.0% ’07-12 DPU growth, and 7.5% upside to our price target. We recognise the expected S$5bn+ of capital raising in 2007 ($945m YTD) is likely to provide a moderate headwind.
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CCT – BT

26 April 2007
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Q1 distributable income at CCT jumps 90%

Retail space at Raffles City to be expanded by 12%

CAPITACOMMERCIAL Trust (CCT) yesterday reported a 90 per cent year-on-year jump in Q1 distributable income to $29.2 million as contributions kicked in from its acquisition of Raffles City on Sept 1 last year. Distributable income for Q1 ended March 31, 2007 was also 10.6 per cent above the trust’s own forecast.

And with more than 70 per cent of its office leases up for renewal from this year to 2009, CCT is poised to enjoy strong upside from rental reversions.

‘Over the next two years, this rental growth and the repositioning of Raffles City will contribute significantly to CCT’s income,’ said David Tan, chief executive of CapitaCommercial Trust Management Ltd (CCTML). ‘The market outlook is positive and we are confident of delivering strong performance this year.’

CCT also announced yesterday the first phase of refurbishment work at Raffles City Shopping Centre, which will cost $55.8 million and add 41,000 sq ft of net lettable retail space – a 12 per cent boost to the existing 352,088 sq ft.

Work is expected to start this quarter and finish by Q4 this year. The refurbishment is projected to achieve incremental annual net property income of $7 million, reflecting a 12.5 per cent return on an ungeared basis. The trust said it has in-principle approval from the Urban Redevelopment Authority to decant about 65,000 sq ft of gross floor area from mechanical and equipment use to new retail use.

The renovation project includes construction of a three-storey island podium in the Level 1 atrium, expansion of The Marketplace in Basement 1 and the reconfiguration and extension of the lease lines of some shops on levels 1 and 2. Levels 1 and 2 of the island podium will be designated for retail use and the third level will be a new elevated atrium for hosting events and promotions. ‘A new three-storey-high water feature integrated into the design of the island podium will serve as an iconic focal point of Raffles City,’ CCTML said.

The retail net lettable area of The Marketplace in Basement 1 will be enlarged by 26,412 sq ft or 30 per cent to 115,980 sq ft. Part of the Basement 1 car park will be converted to retail space to facilitate this. As well, a new car ramp will be built, linking Basements 1 and 3 to enhance vehicle traffic flow.

Besides a 60 per cent stake in the Raffles City office, retail and hotel complex, CCT owns office buildings here including Capital Tower, 6 Battery Road and HSBC Building, a 30 per cent stake in Malaysia-listed Quill Capita Trust and a 7.4 per cent interest in a private property trust, Malaysia Commercial Development Fund.

CCT also effectively owns Wisma Technip office tower in Kuala Lumpur through full control of junior bonds issued in connection with the building’s asset securitisation.

CCT’s Q1 distributable income of $29.2 million works out to a distribution per unit of 2.11 cents, up 22.7 per cent from 1.72 cents for Q1 last year and a 9.9 per cent outperformance on CCTML’s forecast DPU of 1.92 cents based on information in its August 15, 2006 circular.

The latest 2.11 cent DPU for Q1 2007 works out to an annualised payout of 8.56 cents, which reflects a distribution yield of 3.16 per cent based on CCT’s closing price yesterday of $2.71.

CCT’s Q1 2007 gross revenue of almost $56.7 million was a 4.8 per cent improvement on its forecast. This was due mainly to increased rental income, car park income and other income, but was partially offset by lower rental income from Capital Tower due to reconfiguration works.

The trust also booked a $4.5 million loss from the re-measurement of fair values of interest rate swaps in Q1, against a $2.9 million profit in the year-ago period. For full-year 2007, CCTML said it expects to surpass the 7.60 cent DPU reflected in its August 2006 circular.

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CCT – CIMB

26 April 2007
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Decent start to the year

1Q07 within expectations. 1Q07 DPU of 2.1cts represents 22% of our full-year forecast of 9.5cts and 24% of consensus’s 8.9cts. We have assumed that CCT’s portfolio will grow by 15% this year, in line with the trust’s target to reach S$6bn by end-2009 from the current S$3.8bn. Assuming a constant portfolio size, 1Q07 gross rental revenue would have met 24% of our full-year forecast.

Gross rental revenue surged 95%, largely because of the consolidation of the 60% stake in Raffles City that CCT acquired in Sep 06. Excluding Raffles City, gross rental revenue would still have climbed 13% yoy. This was chiefly on account of strong rental growth at Six Battery Road, higher occupancy at Bugis Village, and contributions from Golden Shoe Car Park and Market Street Car Park, following the completion of asset enhancement work there. Overall portfolio occupancy remained technically full at 99%.

Strong office rental reversions to continue. Asking rents at Six Battery Road reached S$16 psf per month in April, a 23% jump from the start of this year. About 10% of the leases in the prime office building are up for renewal this year. Similarly at Raffles City, the asking rent is up 15% from the beginning of this year to S$11.50 psf per month and 29% of the leases are due for renewal this year.

Asset enhancement at Raffles City kicks off. About 41,000 sf of retail NLA (+12%) will be added during the first phase. Construction is scheduled to start this quarter and end by year-end. It was announced previously that the entire asset enhancement package would include the addition of 150,000 sf in NLA and a direct link to the new Esplanade MRT station nearby, which should be ready by 2009/2010. We expect CCT to announce the remaining phases of Raffles City’s asset enhancement in the next 12-18 months.

Maintain Outperform. Our DPU forecasts remain intact and there is no change to our DDM target price of S$3.00 (cost of equity 5%, implied CY07 yield of 3.2%). Potential catalysts in the next 12-18 months include the announcements of the remaining phases of Raffles City’s asset enhancement, CCT’s move into China and possibly the trust’s maiden development project. Based on CCT’s latest asset size of S$3.8bn, CCT can undertake up to S$380m worth of projects.

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