Singapore REITs

Focus on asset size guidance

DPU growth likely to slow. Ascendas REIT (AREIT) will report its 4Q07 results on 18th April after market closes. We are expecting AREIT to report 4Q07 DPU of 3.45 cents, giving full year DPU of 12.90 cents. While FY DPU growth is about 10.3%, this is less than half of the 21.9% growth in FY06. This slowdown is best seen on a sequential basis, with DPU growth of about 7.8%. The growth deceleration reflects the slower rate of acquisition compared to previous years and at much lower yields from the assets bought.

Keep an eye on guidance for acquisition in FY08. As AREIT’s earnings growth has been on the back of acquisition of domestic assets, the key issue is whether the slower pace of acquisition is a one-off or a structural slowdown. Over the last few years, AREIT’s asset size has grown fairly large. It grew by about S$420m in FY04, by S$1000m in FY05 and by S$656m in FY06. For FY07, AREIT is likely to report that it has achieved about S$500m of acquisitions. For the FY07 results, the key would be to focus on management’s guidance (if any) of expected acquisition in FY08.

Market competition is intensifying. The market is definitely getting more competitive. Presently, there are three industrial REIT players in the market, i.e. AREIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Cambridge Industrial Trust. A fourth player, MacarthurCook Industrial REIT, is currently being offered and JTC REIT could be listed in 2008. Growth strategies vary very little among the industrial REIT players. They all adopt the same acquisition led growth strategy. Hence we do not anticipate competitive pressures to buy assets and grow earnings to get any easier.

Maintain HOLD. The key worry is AREIT’s high price-to-book ratio of about 1.7 times. This implies that the market continues to believe that rapid growth is still possible. With the industrial REIT space getting very crowded, we see a high probability of disappointment. Hence AREIT has to either moderate expectation or alternatively propose a new approach to growth. There are a few possibilities, one is to venture overseas and another is to try to buy out a rival REIT that is trading at a much higher yield. We value AREIT at S$2.31 based on an asset size of S$4.0bn (S$2.9bn as at 3Q07). We maintain our HOLD rating.

The future growth will come

Leverage on rental growth in secondary locations. We continue to see bullish rental growth with tight vacancy and bullish rentals in the CBD spilling over to secondary locations. We have noted from property brokers that current asking rents for Keppel Towers is now at S$7.80, up by about 40% from S$5.50 within half a year.

1Q07 DPU below expectations,however, evident of lagged recovery. K-REIT delivered 1Q07 DPU of 1.77 cents, with modest growth of 0.6% sequentially compared to 4Q06. This translates into annualised DPU of 7.18 cents and yield of 2.24%, below our expectations. However, with 72% of NLA expected to be renewed from 2007 to 2010 (11% already renewed in 1Q07), we maintain the view that positive rent reversions from Keppel Towers and the remaining portfolio should flow through to distribution income eventually.

Billion dollar deal reflects rents lagging behind capital values. We highlight the recent landmark deal for office transaction with Capitaland unlocking value through the sale of Temasek Tower for S$1.039bn, or S$1,550 psf to Macquarie Global Property Advisors illustrating lagged effect of rental reversions. We understand from market sources that the yield based on the transaction is only about 2%, which implies unit capital values are pricing in strong growth in later years by market players. We find great disparity between our range of RNAV estimate for K-Reit based on i) Income method (FY08 NPI yield, 4.5% cap rate) which derives RNAV of S$2.04 per unit; ii) market comparison methodology (S$2,172 psf for Prudential Tower; S$1,550 psf for KT/GE and Bugis Junction) accordingly derives S$4.57 per unit which is
consistent with this view.

Upgrade to Buy, raising DCF assumptions. With raised rental assumptions for Keppel Towers (44% NPI contribution) and terminal discount proxied by cap rate of 4.5%, we raise our DCF based target price to S$3.70 on the premise that K-REIT’s assets would continue to flush out under-rented space moving forward and rental growth to be reflected by flow through to
distribution income. Upgrade to Buy.

First Acquisitions since listing

MMP REIT has done its first acquisitions since listing on the 20th Sept 05. MMP has entered into three separate conditional sale and purchase agreements to acquire seven properties in Tokyo, Japan for a total purchase price of approximately S$182.5m. This represents a discount of 1.5% to the appraised value of approximately S$185.4m. Properties under management will increase by 12% to S$1683m.

Minimal DPU Impact. The pro forma financial effect of the acquisitions on DPU for the FY06 would be an additional 0.108 cts per unit, representing an initial yield accretion of 1.9%. The Manager will finance the acquisitions wholly with debt. Upon completion of the acquisitions, the gearing ratio of MMP REIT is expected to increase from 25.6% to 34.0%. The date of completion may be extended until 31 May 2007. This translates to an additional DPU of 0.04 cts for FY07F, representing a yield accretion of 0.7%. We estimated that a distribution income of approximately S$1.0m would be contributed annually from the acquisitions. This works out to be only 1.8% of FY06 distribution income. Hence, we feel that the acquisitions will not have much impact to MMP DPU. This is mainly due to the low opportunity cost in Japan.

Acquisitions Information. The properties are acquired with an initial yield of approximately 4%. Local asset manager from Japan will manage the properties, with the management fee contributed by MMPs property managers fee. Profit will be taxed under Japan by approximately 12%. Average lease term for tenant is estimated to be 5.7 years. Four of the properties are under master lease. Rental rate are expected to be stable without increment during the lease term. Japan property recovering. We believe that Japan property market will rebound after 15 years of decline, backed by the recovering economy and low cost of debt. In addition, the strong demand from investment funds is also pushing up the property prices in capital city like Tokyo. We also expect Japanese yen to appreciate limiting any currency risk involved.

Valuation and recommendation. Although the DPU impact is not great, we feel that this acquisition will benefit MMP in long term. We feel that this will be a good start, and applause to MMPs first acquisitions. We expect to see more acquisitions in future. We also believe that MMPs orchard properties will continue to appreciate, increasing MMPs NAV by at least 10% this year.

With a WACC of 7.2% and a growth rate of 3.0%, we arrive at the fair value of S$1.37 for MMP. This translates to a 4.2% dividend yield and a price to net asset value of 1.1x for FY07. It represents an average spread of 1.5% as compared to the risk free rate of 2.7%. We upgrade MMP to a Buy with a 9.6% return.

Maiden Acquisition

MM Prime REIT has made its maiden acquisition of seven properties, predominantly for retail purposes, in Tokyo for about S$182.5m. The acquisitions will anchor MMP with a strategic foothold in Japan. Based on pro forma NPBT of S$0.7m from the properties these assets could add 0.108 cents to DPU, to be felt from FY08. We are maintaining our FY07 forecast of 5.8 cents, translating to a yield of 4.8%. Maintain BUY with a price target of S$1.28.

Acquired seven properties in Tokyo. MMP has entered an agreement with Yugen Kaisha Triton Property and Fund Creation Co. Ltd to acquire six completed retail properties under the Fund Creation portfolio located in prime areas of Tokyo, Japan for S$110.4m. Currently these properties are enjoying close to 100% occupancy.

The 7th property, the FLEG America-Bashi Building, is a seven-storey retail-cum-office development located in the Ebisu area, which is expected to be completed in September this year. This property will be acquired for S$72.1m from FLEG International a major Japanese retail leasing group and a growing real estate developer.

Full impact to be felt from FY08. The acquisitions will be yield accretive to MMP’s distribution per unit (DPU). The pro forma financial effect would be an additional NPBT of S$0.7m or 0.108 cents per unit, representing an initial yield accretion of 1.8%. As completion of transaction is expected at end May 07, the boost to income would be felt from FY08.

Capacity for expansion. The acquisition would be funded by debt, thus further enhancing to bottomline post acquisition. MMP would have a gearing ratio of 34.0%, up from 26.5% previously. This leaves the group with significant funding capacity for new purchases.

Maintain FY07 forecast. We are maintaining our FY07 forecast of 5.8 cents, translating to a yield of 4.8%. Maintain BUY with price target of S$1.28.

Not just one but seven

Finally, not one but seven. After listing in Sept 2005, MMP has finally delivered acquisitions to drive yield accretion. And for MMP’s debut deal, it is not just one, but a basket of seven properties for S$182.5m at property yield of 4-4.2%, located in various prime areas of Tokyo which is spread across Roppongi, Shibuya-ku, Minato-ku and Meguro-ku. Six of the assets (Fund Creation portfolio) are completed assets with income generation, most with 100% occupancy, while the remaining asset (FLEG America-Bashi Building) is a retail/office building in the Shibuya-ku area currently under construction and expected to complete in Sept 07. Completion of the acquisition of the Fund Creation portfolio is expected to complete by May and FLEG America-Bashi Building on a completion basis.

Yield accretion fully funded by debt. With current gearing of 25.6% preacquisition, MMP has considerable debt capacity to pursue yieldenhancing transactions. We expect MMP to fund its debut acquisitions fully by lower cost of borrowing in Japan, and estimate about 0.1 cents DPU accretion on full income contribution from these assets.

Time to bridge the gap. With a first acquisition from Japanese real estate developer FLEG International, this could mark the first of more acquisitions to be sourced from Japan as part of a possible indirect 3rd party pipeline. Moving forward, should MMP rack in more acquisitions and illustrate the Reit manager’s deal sourcing capability, we could see further yield compression for MMP and narrow the yield gap between MMP and other retail S-Reits which are trading at a comparative premium backed by developers.

Maintaining Buy, TP S$ 1.34. We have factored in the above acquisitions into our DCF calculations and arrive at fair value of S$ 1.34. At 5.1% distribution yield compared to other retail S-Reits currently trading at 3.5%, this suggest room for further upside with yield compression. Hence, we maintain our BUY call for MMP REIT, and target price of S$ 1.34 based on DCF valuation. Downside risk is limited due to resilient prime retail rents and office market upswing.