MMP – OCBC

Defensive in uncertain market

Slight growth in 2Q07 results. Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT’s (MMP)recently reported its 2Q07 result that was broadly in line with our expectation. Revenue growths were tepid at 5.5% YoY and 1.1% QoQ to S$23.6m. Net property income (NPI) did better sequentially, improving 4.0% (+3.5% YoY). This was due to lower expenses related to leases renewal commission and depreciation. DPU for 2Q07 was 1.50 cents (+4.2% YoY and 2.0% QoQ). The key reason for the slightly better performance was better rentals and lower operating expenses.

Buys into China and Japan. MMP has recently been pretty active on the acquisition front, buying properties in Japan for about S$182m and in Chengdu for S$70m. The Chengdu property will have an attractive NPI yield of 7.5% and will be guaranteed for 2 years. Though these purchases are small in absolute terms and the bottom line growth impact is only about 5%, the impact on MMP’s asset size is more material at about 17% or by about S$250m to S$1.8bn. We expect these acquisitions to be fully debt funded and this is likely to push gearing to about 33% (from 26% in 1Q07), still well within the allowable limit. In terms of DPU growth from these acquisitions, we have already allowed for this in our FY08 DPU of 6.4 cents hence will maintain our forecast for now.

Organic growth to come from office. MMP’s office space is presently under-rented with rents at about S$5 psf/mth, whereas market rents are approaching the S$10-13 psf/mth mark. More importantly, with 182,000 sq ft (about 70% of office space) of leases due for renewal over the next two years, we see good potential for upward revisions in rental rates.

Maintain BUY. MMP remains one of the very few REITs with a low priceto-book ratio. This low valuation means that it is likely to be more resilient in market uncertainty. Since our last report (April 07), MMP’s share price has corrected by only about 2%. It is currently trading at just under 1.0x P/B and implies that the market has not factored in growth. With a DPU yield of about 5.0% and a capital value upside of about 8.0%, total return of over 13% is possible with little downside risk. We thus remain positive on MMP and see it as one of the lowest-risk REITs in the market. Maintain BUY with a fair value of S$1.32.