MMP – DBS

Who will mine the Orchard Gold ?

Story: According to news reports today, it has been quoted that sponsor Macquarie Group could be reviewing its 26% stake in MMP with a possible divestment in the works. The news report also cited that there could also be potential differences between Macquarie and other main shareholders within the MMP REIT manager in terms of strategic direction that may also see some resistance for any potential divestment.

Point: The above piece of news is likely to cast doubts on the cohesiveness of the REIT manager. In the near term, this piece of news may also result some overhang on the unit price. However, this supports our earlier view that M&A could emerge as a positive catalyst for the stock and MMP to be a likely target due to the following : i) MMP has a relatively fragmented ownership structure; ii) its position as an independent REIT without a developer as a sponsor; iii) Attractive yield spreads of c.200 bps compared to its Singapore-listed peers which supports MMP’s attractiveness as a takeover target; and iv) MMP’s portfolio is backed by prime assets in Singapore such as Wisma Atria (41% of portfolio value) and Ngee Ann City (47% of portfolio value) and is currently trading at an attractive 34% discount to NAV.

Relevance: We are maintaining our BUY on MMP which is currently trading at an attractive 7.0% FY08 yield and 7.3% FY09 yield and at an attractive 34% discount to NAV backed by prime retail assets. Target price is S$1.63 based on DCF.