PST – OCBC

4Q results par for the course

Acquisitions buoy revenue. Pacific Shipping Trust (PST) posted US$14.5m in 4Q08 revenue, up 67% YoY and 30% QoQ. For the full year, it recorded a 29% increase in revenue to US$44.6m. The strong gains were due to contributions from the four vessel acquisitions made over the course of 2008. The trust recorded a net profit of US$6.3m for the quarter. Because of a change in the accounting treatment, PST will no longer reflect fair value gains and losses on its interest rate swaps on its P&L statements. Stripping out the same from 4Q07 accounts, the trust saw roughly a 53% YoY gain in net profit. The results met our expectations.

DPU is lower. PST will pay unitholders 0.93 US cent per unit in distributions for the quarter, which translates to a 25% annualized trailing yield. Despite gains in cash income, this DPU figure is about 15% lower on a YoY and QoQ basis because of: 1) the lower payout policy adopted in 2008; 2) an enlarged shareholder base after the 3Q08 preferential offering; and 3) a partial revenue contribution from the CSAV Lauca, the fourth acquisition completed only in mid-November. We estimate a slight increase in 1Q09 DPU, which marks the first full contribution from CSAV Lauca. At the same time, PST’s interest expenses will decrease in sync with the trust’s debt repayment schedule. This should also boost DPU on a more gradual basis.

Stronger balance sheet. PST is in a comfortable position since the completion of its 3Q08 preferential offering, which raised about US$92.3m. The proceeds were used to partially fund the 2008 vessel acquisitions. PST is currently geared at about 1x debt-to-equity. We expect this to fall to about 0.94x by the end of this year as the trust pays down debt. PST can also sit tight as it has no refinancing needs in the near to medium term. PST also stands out because it is the only Singapore-listed shipping trust without loan-to-market value covenants on its books.

HOLD recommendation. Our key concern for PST is counterparty risk arising from the trust’s two customers, Pacific Intl Lines (PIL) and CSAV. Both charterers are among the world’s top 20 container operators1 . PIL, which accounts for about 70% of PST’s annual revenue, is the trust’s sponsor and 59.2% stakeholder. Tactically, we think it is too early in the cycle to become buyers of shipping trusts. There are still too many unknowns. We rate PST as a HOLD with US$0.16 fair value.