Month: April 2009

 

Cambridge – CIMB

Holding fort in a difficult time

• We visited six of CREIT’s industrial properties recently, accompanied by members of its asset and property management teams, followed by a meeting with its new CEO, Mr Chris Calvert.

• Concerns we have include the fact that only 30% of its master tenants are endusers of its industrial space and CREIT’s heavy reliance on its top 10 tenants for its gross revenue.

• Short-term performance looks stable. We take comfort that management is managing its tenants and sub-tenants much more tightly, and taking steps to ensure tenant sustainability. Limited lease expiries of only 5.4% over the next four years add some certainty to occupancy sustainability.

• Maintain Outperform at S$0.53. Although there remain issues in CREIT’s portfolio, we are fairly confident that CREIT is not likely to face too much distress in the short to medium term. At 0.37x P/BV, CREIT remains more attractive than its two larger competitors AREIT (0.79x) and MLT (0.52x). Potential price upside of 89% and above-average yields of 17.5% make CREIT attractive despite uncertainties in the manufacturing sector. We maintain our Outperform and target price of S$0.53 (discount 9.6%), still based on DDM valuation.

REITs – BT

Reits not sure-win investments

THE Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit) saga should dispel several widely held myths about the Singapore Reit sector – that the trusts are no-brainer investments; that they are duty-bound to pay out dividends; and that the most important thing to consider when assessing whether a Reit is worth putting your money into is the possible returns from the trust’s portfolio.

Saizen Reit, which in February said that it was not going to pay a distribution for Q2 2009 in order to conserve cash and pay off its loans, has more recently said that it aims to resume payments as soon as possible. But investors may have to wait as long as June 2010, which is when the Reit said it expects to resolve its funding issues.

Prior to those announcements, the trust, which gets its income from residential rental properties in Japan, put out a proposal that would allow it to pay dividends in the form of Reit units – rather than cash – but later said it would not proceed with the plan after deliberations with the Singapore Exchange.

For unitholders, this means that they may not get any income from their holdings in the Reit for more than a year. These investors, who probably bought into the Reit to be ensured of a stable source of income, could now have no such income until mid-2010.

The most important thing for a newcomer to the sector to note is that Reits are not required by law to pay out dividends. Singapore-listed Reits have to distribute to unitholders at least 90 per cent of their distributable income, in order to enjoy tax transparency – which means exemption from paying corporate tax at the Reit/vehicle level on the portion of income they distribute.

But this tax break only applies to those Reits with assets based in Singapore. Reits such as Saizen, which have all of their properties in Japan, do not qualify for the above-mentioned tax transparency treatment. This means that they do not have the same incentive to pay out 90 per cent of their distributable income that Reits with all their assets based in Singapore do.

The Reit sector here has been drawing investors by advertising high yields (which have gotten even higher as Reit stock prices have fallen by quite a bit over the past year). But these yields – as Saizen Reit has proven – are not always guaranteed.

The other thing that this whole saga has highlighted is that when evaluating whether a Reit is worth putting your money into, it is not enough to just consider the viability of the Reit’s business. One must also look at how the trust initially financed its property portfolio.

By all accounts, Saizen Reit’s income stream seems to be stable. The trust, which has a portfolio of 166 buildings with 6,000 rental homes in Japan, said rents and occupancies across its largely mass-market properties have remained stable since the current crisis began.

Rather, the problem is with the way those properties were financed when they were acquired. When building up its portfolio in the years leading up to its 2007 listing, Saizen relied solely on commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) loans to finance its buying. But the CMBS market all but shut down at the beginning of 2008.

The trust had already changed some of its loans to traditional bank loans by then, but the crisis meant that bank loans dried up, leaving it with six CMBS loans worth some 20.15 billion yen (S$303.8 million) in all – which Saizen couldn’t refinance.

Now, the trust has to draw on cash reserves, proceeds from a $41 million rights issue, operating cash flow and a short-term bridging loan to pay off five of these CMBS loans worth some 12.2 billion yen in all.

For the sixth CMBS loan, worth 7.95 billion yen, Saizen is looking for refinancing through a possible syndicated loan. In the worst-case scenario, if no refinancing can be found for the sixth loan, the trust may have to forfeit properties worth 10.3 billion Japanese yen, which were used as collateral for that CMBS loan tranche.

High yields and capital gains in the initial years of the sector’s growth have spoilt Singapore Reit investors, or worse still, lulled some into thinking Reits are sure-win investments. What happened at Saizen, hopefully, will serve as a wake-up call.

Industrial REITs – DBS

Property Tour Highlights

We paid a visit to Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) and Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) properties located in Singapore’s major industrial and business parks. We went away pleased with the respective landlords ‘hands on’ management of the properties and having a good grasp of tenants’ requests and needs. Maintain BUY for AREIT (S$1.56) and MLT (S$0.44), which are trading at FY10- 11DPU yields of c. 9% and 14% respectively.

A tour of selected MLT and AREIT properties. We visited a total of 8 selected industrial properties in Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) and Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) portfolio located in Singapore’s major industrial and business parks. These properties ranged from business parks, hi-tech industrial buildings to logistics & warehouses (L%W).

Well maintained with stable occupancies. We are pleased to say that the properties we visited are well maintained and managed with on-site representatives to cater to tenants’ needs and requests. As such, occupancy levels at A-REIT and MLT’s portfolio have remained stable at around 99% over the past year, with strong retention rates of over 80% in FY08. Looking ahead, strong rapport with tenants and proactive leasing strategies established by MLT and A-REIT will likely sway tenants’ decisions toward continuing staying put at their properties.

Asking rentals are easing but within expectations. In our discussions with the various asset managers, we understand that asking rents have eased generally. For business parks space and Hi-tech industrial space, asking rents have dipped slightly, since the peak, to S$2.80 – S$3.50 psf pm. However, this is still above their respective average passing rents of c. S$2.55 psf pm and S$2.09 psf pm (as of reported in 3Q09). For L&W properties, we do not expect rates to fall significantly as it has remained relatively stable over the years.

TP for A-REIT raised to S$1.56, Maintain BUY on MLT, TP S$0.44. We continue to like an exposure to industrial space given its longer lease profile, will ensure more resilient earnings moving forward. Both A-REIT and MLT has 40% and 50% of its earnings locked in through long term sales and leaseback contracts. We roll forward our valuations for A-REIT to FY10, resulting in our adjusted target price of S$1.56.

FCOT – BT

S&P put FCOT on credit watch

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services on Wednesday placed Frasers Commercial Trust’s (FCOT) ‘BB’ long-term corporate credit rating on credit watch with negative implications.

The credit watch placement ‘is the result of FCOT not having in place refinancing arrangements to the level of certainty anticipated by Standard & Poor’s at this stage’, the credit rating agency said.

‘In resolving the credit watch, we anticipate firm committed refinancing arrangements to be in place by middle of May 2009,’ said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Wee Khim Loy. If that does not happen, FCOT may suffer a rating downgrade.

The agency may even lower FCOT’s rating by more than one category if ‘the likelihood of FCOT successfully completing its refinancing exercise in a timelymanner has declined materially,’ Ms Loy added.

In response, FCOT said that it is negotiating with financial institutions the terms and conditions to refinance the entire $550 million of loan notes, and will make further announcements at an appropriate time

PLife – DMG

Offers revenue downside protection


Downside risk to revenue growth protected. PREIT is the only REIT that pegs its rental revenue growth to CPI, with a minimum growth of 1%. In an economic downturn where CPI is negative, PREIT’s rental revenue from its Singapore properties would still grow by the minimum 1%. Of its 10 Japanese properties, the lease structures for three nursing homes are linked to Japan’s inflation, while rental from the other Japanese assets would be reviewed every few years, to reflect market rates. The agreement with lessees is that rent revision would be only take place, if the market rates are higher. Otherwise, rentals will remain unchanged. Hence, its unique lease structure offers revenue downside protection, and provides a stable dividend payout.

No refinancing risks for the next 24 months. There is no refinancing risk in the next 24 months, as the next refinancing requirement will be in 2011. Its low gearing of 23% at end FY08 allows PREIT with headroom to take on debt to expand its portfolio through acquisitions. It would be able to take on another S$300m debt before it reaches a gearing of 40%, and S$990m before it hits 60% gearing. PREIT’s current portfolio consists of 80% of Singapore assets and 20% Japan assets. Management highlighted that Singapore will remain its core focus, but it does not rule out seeking acquisitions in countries like China, India or Australia, for mature assets that are yield accretive.

We have a target price of S$1.01 for PREIT. Our DDM value assumes no new acquisitions and cost of equity of 8.7%. At current levels, PREIT is trading at 0.6x P/B and FY09F dividend yield of 10.5%. We feel that PREIT deserves a premium over peers, for its defensive nature and the revenue downside protection that its lease structure offers. We initiate coverage with a BUY
recommendation.