Month: April 2009

 

REITs – OCBC

Class gap implies different valuation catalysts

Class gap between S-REITs. Consensus forward yields, ranging from 7- 38%, are showing a wide divergence in valuations across the S-REIT sector. Our thesis is that the S-REIT sector is now broadly segregated into two camps – the “haves” (large, blue-chip sponsored REITs with strong balance sheets) and the “have-nots” (smaller, non-sponsored REITs with high gearing). Valuation catalysts also vary accordingly – we believe the market focus for the weaker “have-nots” is still on their ability to secure refinancing but the focus for the “haves” is on 1) how the macroeconomic picture affects earnings and 2) the need for equity issues to recapitalize balance sheets. Investors can expect some key data points on both the refinancing and the earnings fronts in the coming months.

Refi news impacts “have-nots” more. MacarthurCook Industrial REIT [NOT RATED] announced yesterday that it has received a 60 day extension for its loan facility worth S$220.8m maturing on 18 April. MI-REIT is geared at almost 40% and this facility constitutes the bulk of its borrowings. The extension buys MI-REIT some time to continue negotiations with its lenders, National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Its inability to secure a resolution by April is a disappointment, in our view. MI-REIT’s refinancing efforts will likely be benchmarked against the Dec 2008 refinancing completed by peer Cambridge Industrial Trust [NOT RATED] as both S-REITs are relatively smaller, non-sponsored and industrial focused. We expect negative refinancing news to further widen the valuation gap between the two S-REIT classes. For the broader sector, such refinancing news may be indicative of lender risk appetite. Tighter loan-tovalue demands may trigger a sector-wide overhaul of capital structures, potentially via equity issues.

Watch rents & vacancy data points for the “haves”. Most S-REITs should report 1Q CY09 earnings over the last two weeks in April. We believe that 1H09 earnings are worth watching as the impact of macroeconomic events slowly filters through to the S-REIT bottom-line. For the office sector, we will be watching the pace of the decline in achieved rents as well as any change in occupancy levels. Given the economic slowdown, occupancy levels will be the key metric to watch in the industrial space. We are also looking out for an update on the post-CNY retail landscape and validation of the consensus ‘suburban means defensive’ view. We maintain our NEUTRAL call on the sector and leave our estimates and ratings for individual S-REITs unchanged in anticipation of 1Q results.

LinkTable

Rickmers – BT

Bank raises rate on Rickmers Maritime loan

It invokes market disruption clause in loan terms

JITTERY financial markets continue to be the thorn in the side of corporates as shipping trust Rickmers Maritime yesterday announced that one of its banks has invoked the market disruption clause in the loan terms and will consequently levy a higher interest rate on its loan.

First Ship Lease Trust (FSLT) got hit with this same problem in October and this time it is Rickmers’ turn and it will result in an about US$47,000 rise in interest cost for this fixing period. However, it will not have a significant impact on its earnings per unit for the financial year ending Dec 31, trustee-manager Rickmers Trust Management said.

The market disruption clause is invoked when the US$ Libor, which is the reference rate on the loans, does not accurately reflect the lenders’ actual cost of funds.

In response to queries in the wake of FSLT’s problems in October, Rickmers said then that though it had the clause in its loan documents it had not been invoked yet. The increased interest costs then caused FSLT to reduce its Q408 distribution per unit guidance by 1 per cent.

Three-month US dollar Libor rates hit their lowest in two months in London falling one basis point to 1.1768 per cent yesterday, Reuters reported.

‘The increase in interest rate pursuant to the invocation of the market disruption clause by the bank by no means reflects the credit-worthiness of Rickmers Maritime. Where Rickmers Maritime is concerned, we continue to enjoy strong cash flows and have met all our loan obligations promptly,’ reiterated CFO Quah Ban Huat.

Rickmers Maritime has credit lines with nine other banks, none of which has invoked the market disruption clause, Mr Quah added.

Separately, Rickmers said yesterday that is has taken delivery of its 16th containership, Hanjin Newport, the first of four ships chartered to Hanjin Shipping, South Korea’s largest container liner company.

The 4,250 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) newbuild vessel from Jiangsu New Yangzijiang Ship Building commences a seven-year fixed-rate time charter to Hanjin Shipping.

Rickmers units closed unchanged at 34.5 cents yesterday.

MI-REIT – BT

Moody’s rating on MI-Reit cut over refinancing

MOODY’S Investors Service yesterday downgraded Macarthurcook Industrial Reit’s (MI-Reit) corporate family rating from B1 to B2, and added that it is continuing its review of the rating for possible further downgrade.

‘The downgrade reflects the existence of heightened liquidity pressure, given that the company has not yet secured definitive long-term refinancing for its $201 million loan originally due on April 18, 2009,’ said Kathleen Lee, vice-president/senior analyst and lead analyst for the trust.

‘The downgrade to B2 also reflects Moody’s concerns that MI-Reit has unfunded financing needs of $91 million for the completion of a put and call option over 4A International Business Park by Dec 31, 2009; a situation which means funding challenges, given tight credit market conditions and the trust’s limited financial flexibility, as all its assets are encumbered to existing lenders.

‘Moreover, MI-Reit’s committed acquisition was priced at a time when real estate values were still on the uptrend in August 2007, while the values of industrial property assets have softened from Q4 2008.’

In its release, Moody’s observed that on Tuesday, MI-Reit announced that its existing bankers, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Limited and National Australia Bank Limited, have granted a 60-day extension to June 16 for the $201 million maturing debt.

‘And while Moody’s recognises the steps taken by the trust to address this maturing loan, it remains uncertain as to what terms and conditions will accompany any refinancing exercise,’ Ms Lee said.

Moody’s review for possible further downgrade will focus on MI-Reit’s progress in, and the terms of, the refinancing efforts for its debt maturing on June 16; funding of the 4A International Business Park acquisition under a ‘sale and lease back’ call and put option by Dec 31 2009; and steps to refinance the company’s loan of 1.5 billion yen (S$23 million) due in December this year.

Saizen – BT

Saizen Reit aims to resume dividend payments in June 2010

In the meantime, all operating cash flow will be used to service CMBS loans

SAIZEN Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit), which recently suspended dividend payments to unitholders to conserve cash, hopes to resume payments by June 2010 at the latest.

In the meantime, all operating cash flow will be used to service its commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) loans, it said.

‘We are very clear on our mandate,’ Raymond Wong, executive director of the Reit’s manager, told BT. ‘A Reit is a yield vehicle. We are fully aware of this and we want to keep paying dividends at all cost – but these are exceptional times.’

The trust, which is looking to raise net proceeds of $41 million through a rights issue, says it should have paid off five of its six CMBS loans by June 2010, after which it can use its property income to resume paying dividends.

The Reit will draw on cash reserves, proceeds from its rights issue, operating cash flow and a short-term bridging loan to pay off five CMBS loans worth some 12.2 billion yen (S$187.95) million in all. For the sixth CMBS loan, worth 7.95 billion yen, Saizen is looking for refinancing through a possible syndicated loan.

Mr Wong hopes that once the 12.2 billion yen CMBS loans are paid off, the assets used to secure those loans – which will then all be unencumbered – can then be used to secure refinancing for the sixth. In the worst-case scenario, if no refinancing can be found for the sixth loan, the trust may have to forfeit properties worth 10.3 billion Japanese yen, which were used as collateral for that CMBS loan tranche.

The trust also has another 6.68 billion yen of traditional bank loans due from 2011 onwards.

Management is trying to ensure the survival of the Reit, Mr Wong said. ‘We are really making an effort to explain to shareholders that by holding back the dividends and with the rights issue, we will ensure survival and also protect at least 90 per cent of the (portfolio) value.’

The trust, which derives its income from rental properties in Japan, said in February that it was not declaring any distribution for Q2 2009.

Prior to that, it put out a proposal that would allow it to pay dividends in the form of Reit units – rather than cash – but later said it would not proceed with this scrip dividend scheme. Mr Wong yesterday said the plan was abandoned after deliberations with the Singapore Exchange.

The Reit, which has a portfolio of 166 buildings with 6,000 rental homes in Japan, said rents and occupancies across its largely mass-market properties have remained stable since the current crisis began.

‘In the past 18 months since our listing, we have delivered results,’ said Mr Wong. The trust saw gross revenue and net property income rise by 24.5 per cent and 24.7 per cent respectively in its Q2 2009 quarter compared with a year earlier, due to an increase in the size of its portfolio. ‘The one big problem we are facing is the refinancing,’ Mr Wong said.

Saizen Reit was hit when the market for CMBS products collapsed in 2008 at the onset of the current crisis.

When building up its portfolio in the years leading up to its 2007 listing, Saizen relied solely on CMBS to finance its buying. But the CMBS market shut down at the beginning of 2008.

The trust had already changed some of its loans to traditional bank loans by then, but the crisis meant bank loans dried up, leaving it with six CMBS loans.

Moody’s Investors Service yesterday downgraded Saizen Reit’s corporate family rating to Ba3 from Ba1. The rating remains on review for further possible downgrade, the agency said.

Saizen – BT

Moody’s lowers Saizen; review for possible downgrade

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Saizen REIT’s corporate family rating to Ba3 from Ba1.

At the same time, the rating remains on review for further possible downgrade.

‘The downgrade reflects Saizen’s rising liquidity pressure with the presence of material refinancing risk in 4Q2009,’ says Kaven Tsang, a Moody’s AVP/Analyst.

‘While Saizen has suspended dividend payouts to preserve liquidity and is conducting a rights issue to address part of the refinancing needs, a significant portion of the maturing CMBS still does not have any committed funding arrangements. This material liquidity exposure will position Saizen more appropriately at the Ba3 rating level,’ he adds. Mr Tsang is also Moody’s lead analyst for the trust.

‘The slow process in refinancing and the narrow nature of its banking relationships would further increase Saizen’s exposure to market uncertainties, in view of the tightened nature of the global credit environment and the distressed state of the banking sector,’ he said.

‘Meanwhile, Saizen is exposed to the weakening in the operating environment and asset devaluation risk, as Japan’s recession deepens.

‘The latter could narrow the headroom for loan covenant compliance.’

Partly mitigating these concerns is the fact that its properties are in cities whose rental housing markets display fairly stable histories, even during the downturns of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Saizen’s rating remains on review for possible downgrade and the review will focus on the company’s abilities to raise committed funding to address the unfunded portion of the maturing CMBS in 4Q2009 against the backdrop of turbulence in the financial markets.

Further downward rating pressure would evolve if Saizen’s liquidity position weakens, in the event that 1) Saizen fails to complete its rights issues, and 2) there is no material progress in securing committed funds — over the next 2 months — to refinance the unfunded portion of the maturing CMBS in 4Q 2009.

The last rating action was on 26 February 2009 when Saizen’s rating was downgraded to Ba1 and Moody’s continued its review for further possible downgrade.