FSL – OCBC

Asset values edge up versus October

DPU in line. FSL Trust (FSLT)’s 1Q10 DPU of 1.5 US cents was flat QoQ but fell 38.8% YoY because of a lower payout policy and a larger unit base post-placement. Guidance for 2Q10 DPU is flat at 1.5 US cents, offering an annualized yield of 13%. The manager quite emphatically stated it would not return to the days of a 100% payout; it prefers a “fixed dividend + incremental growth” strategy that will allow it to retain some excess cash.

Acquisition plan hits the “homestretch”. FSLT has yet to deploy the US$28.3m net proceeds from its Sep 2009 placement; so for roughly seven months, the larger unit base has not been offset by additional income or lower expenses – creating a shortfall between cash generated and cash paid out. The manager is now saying an announcement is likely in “a matter of weeks / possibly in a month of two”. FSLT reiterated its target asset yield of 15% and its plan to further diversify into a previously untapped vessel sub-sector (for example, offshore). A significant change in guidance is that FSLT is “now hopeful of lifting acquisition projects over and above” the placement proceeds because of increasing access to capital.

Asset values edge up. In a Mar 2010 charter-free revaluation of its portfolio, FSLT recorded a 5.5% gain in asset values versus Oct 2009. The current value-to-loan (VTL) coverage of 129% is comfortably above the current reduced 100% VTL requirement but below the 145% threshold required after end-2Q FY11. Assuming asset values remain stable and taking US$8m quarterly repayments into account, FSLT can touch 140% coverage by Jun 2011. Cash in hand and the planned unencumbered acquisition adds further cushion. Still, FSLT is taking no chances and may opportunistically issue unsecured debt (the manager guided that BB- high yield debt in Asia is attracting pricing of 10-13% at present). The trade-off versus secured debt (costing roughly 6% today) is large, but this may be a necessary evil to remove the VTL covenant overhang, once and for all.

Valuation. We have revised FY10 estimates to reflect an assumed acquisition completion date of 01 Jun (prev: 01 Jan). In light of increased stability in FSLT’s operating environment, we are 1) lowering our discount rate from 13% to 11.5%; and 2) now derive our fair value estimate using a 20% discount to this discounted FCFE value (prev: 25%). But balance sheet issues are not eliminated completely, and we maintain our HOLD rating with revised S$0.59 fair value [prev: S$0.53].