Month: April 2010

 

SREITs – DBS

Upside for Industrial REITS

Room for earnings upgrade for industrial reits

Hospitality reits to lead earnings growth in 1Q10

Prefer industrial, retail and hospitality reits

Top picks – ART, CDL HT, MLT, FCT, AiT

1Q earnings growth driven by economic recovery and acquisitions. We expect Sreits earnings momentum to continue into 1Q10, led by hospitality reits. Hospitality Reits should grow by at least 10% qoq in 1Q10, owing to a secular sector recovery while industrial reits should enjoy sequential mid single digit earnings uplift from new acquisitions. Retail reits are likely to show modest growth on the back of improving retail sales and office reits are likely to see marginal qoq increase, given the previous high base in rents.

Raising our earnings projection for the industrial Sreits. Looking ahead, we see 3 catalysts for Sreits – organic growth, acquisitions and refinancing into current lower interest cost environment. We have raised our earnings estimates for industrial Sreits by 1.5-4% to factor in potential new acquisitions in FY10. On the operating front, the pick up in economic activity has resulted in increased leasing enquiries, particularly for logistics warehouse, light and hi-tech industrial space. Rental hikes in 1H are likely to remain modest, although we anticipate this trend will be more evident in 2H10. Suburban retail rents have benefited from rising retail sales and a nascent recovery in rental pricing power.

Interest burden to reduce on refinancing options. The present window of opportunity for refinancing exercises at competitive rates have brought our attention to the possible uplifting impact of reduced interest burden on earnings. Potential beneficiaries would include reits with debt refinancing due this year and next such as CCT, CMT, Suntec, K-reit and Starhill Global. This has not been factored into our existing forecast.

Going for alpha. Sreits have outperformed developers YTD and are currently trading at DPU yields of 7.4%. Our 12-month price target translates to a projected yield of 6.5%, or 13% upside from here. Our strategy for Sreits would be to look for alpha, given the outperformance to date. We continue to favour the hospitality, retail and industrial segments, that offers the greatest upside based on our price objectives. Our top picks include CDL HT, ART, FCT, Ascendas India and MLT. The risk to our view is the prospect of rising long bond yields, which could drag on share price performance.

PLife – BT

Parkway Life Reit a model for India’s Fortis: analyst

2 ways to ride on India market: replicate Reit or pump in properties

EVEN as Fortis Healthcare and Parkway Holdings are pondering over the possible synergies that the healthcare partners can leverage on from their new relationship, one analyst has suggested that they look into real estate too.

Simranjit Singh, director of healthcare practice at Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific, said that with the India property market heating up, Fortis could leverage on Parkway Life Reit (of which Parkway is a substantial unit-holder) by ‘offloading its Indian properties’ to the Reit or ‘by replicating a similar healthcare Reit model in India’.

‘In fact, many analysts speculate that there will be about three to four large-sized initial public offerings of Reits this year,’ said Mr Singh. ‘This is likely to come from India, where business parks are maturing and attracting stable, healthy income streams for property owners. It will also be hard to rule out the possibility for hospitals to join the fray.’

However, analysts that BT spoke to expressed a mixed response to that suggestion.

‘Although India is one of the markets that have huge untapped potential, an acquisition of an Indian asset in the near term is unlikely,’ said Kim Eng Research investment analyst Anni Kum. ‘Japan and Australia currently present better opportunities due to the still attractive asset yields and stable income structure that potential targets offer. I do not think India is a market that PLife Reit is seriously looking at at this moment. But the Reit may still consider opportunistic buys at compelling prices.’

Broadly agreeing, DMG Securities’ Terence Wong said that Malaysia would be more attractive to PLife Reit. ‘They’ve always mentioned that they will focus on four markets – Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, as well as Australia. So after Japan, probably it’ll be Malaysia.’

PLife Reit owns the Gleneagles, Mt Elizabeth and Parkway East hospitals in Singapore as well as 18 properties in Japan.

Another analyst from a research house based here noted that the defensive nature of a Reit model requires that the properties that PLife Reit acquires be able to generate a stable income stream. While India is a possibility, an injection of assets is unlikely in the near term, he said.

‘The management of PLife Reit is very focused on where they want to invest in,’ said the analyst. ‘Those countries that they are looking into are usually more mature in terms of regulations, like Singapore, Japan as well as Australia. Offhand, I would think India, in terms of regulations, is still behind these three countries.’

When asked what he thinks of the real estate suggestion, Parkway Trust Management CEO Yong Yean Chau said he is positive about the growing regional healthcare market but each acquisition ‘will have to be yield-accretive’.

‘As always, we remain open to opportunities for strategic partnerships with high-quality operators at the right time to enhance our business and portfolio,’ said Mr Yong, whose company manages PLife Reit.

Interestingly, Fortis Healthcare is listed as a competitor in PLife Reit’s IPO prospectus. The Indian hospital chain owner, which bought a stake in Parkway last month for close to $1 billion, operates a network of 46 hospitals, with another eight still under construction. Fortis Healthcare now owns 25 per cent of Parkway, which in turn holds a 36 per cent interest in PLife Reit.

In a statement yesterday, Frost & Sullivan’s Mr Singh also said that Fortis could tap on Parkway’s expertise in providing primary healthcare for the expatriate segment as India is also seeing a growth in its expatriate community. There are also growth opportunities for Parkway’s laboratory business and that of Super Religare Laboratories, which is owned by Fortis.

‘In fact, this could be a business unit that could be further developed and listed as a separate entity,’ said Mr Singh.

CLT – BT

Cache Logistics Trust IPO to raise $417m

Reit’s cornerstone investors are JF Asset Mgt and Morgan Stanley Investment Mgt

CACHE Logistics Trust (CLT), the first real estate investment trust (Reit) heading for a Singapore listing since the global financial crisis broke, aims to raise $417.2 million in gross proceeds from its listing.

CLT will offer 474.1 million units at 88 cents each – a price that is at the top end of the 84-88 cent range indicated earlier.

Of these units, 433.1 million will be placed out and 41 million will be available to the public. The public offer will open today and close on April 8.

According to Reit manager ARA-CWT Trust Management (Cache), investors at roadshows have responded well to the initial public offering.

‘I think it will be very successful,’ said ARA Asset Management CEO John Lim at a briefing yesterday. ARA has a 60 per cent stake in the manager while logistics firm and Reit sponsor CWT Ltd owns the other 40 per cent.

CLT has attracted two cornerstone investors – JF Asset Management holding 41 million units and Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company holding 15.9 million units.

After the IPO is complete, 632.2 million units will be in issue. Trading of the units is expected to start on April 12.

Based on the offer price of 88 cents, CLT is projecting a distribution yield of 8.7 per cent for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010, and a yield of 8.82 per cent for 2011.

CLT’s initial portfolio will comprise six logistics properties in Singapore with a total gross floor area (GFA) of 3.9 million sq ft. Growth is on the cards – the Reit will focus on expanding locally in the near term before looking at acquisitions in foreign markets such as Greater China and Malaysia.

‘We need to make certain that we have a good base…and we also want to make sure that the timing is right to enter (overseas) markets,’ said CEO of CLT’s manager, Daniel Cerf.

Besides, CLT has a right of first refusal from CWT and its substantial shareholder C&P, on 13 properties with a GFA of 2.9 million sq ft. ‘You have to eat whatever you have on your plate first,’ Mr Lim quipped.

CLT will start off with an aggregate leverage of 25.9 per cent – one of the lowest levels in the Reit industry. According to Mr Cerf, leverage that is 30 per cent or less would be optimal, though the level may change as CLT acquires properties.

CLT – CNA

Cache Logistics Trust expects to raise S$417.2m from its IPO

Cache Logistics Trust expects to raise some S$417 million from its initial public offering.

The IPO, launched on Thursday, is the first logistics real estate investment trust to be listed in more than two years.

CLT is a joint real estate investment unit of CWT and ARA Asset Management.

It's offering more than 470 million units at 88 cents each.

The IPO is priced at the higher end of the 84 cents to 88 cents indicative range but Mr John Lim, chief executive officer of ARA Asset Management said that he remains confident that it will still attract "overwhelming demand."

There are currently six properties in CLT's portfolio.

They are located near Changi Airport, PSA Corp's terminals and Jurong Port.

With a total gross floor area of 3.9 million square feet, the properties include ramp-up warehouses – a multi-storey feature that CLT's chief executive officer Daniel Cerf believes will maximise plot ratio and boost its resilience as a logistics REIT.

Earlier this year, CWT sold two properties in Singapore to CLT for S$445 million, with the REIT funding the purchase through a combination of shares and cash.

CLT plans to use its IPO proceeds to fund new properties and working income.

The units are expected to start trading on the Singapore Exchange mainboard on April 12.

Macquarie Capital, Standard Chartered and DBS Bank are underwriters and joint global co-ordinators of the IPO. – CNA/vm

 

Link : IPO Prospectus

CMT – OCBC

Issues US$500m 5-year fixed rate notes

Issues US$500m fixed rate notes. Yesterday, CapitaMall Trust (CMT) announced that it is planning to issue US$500m 5-year fixed rate notes bearing interest rate of 4.321% per annum (payable half-yearly in arrears). The notes are issued under the US$2b Euro-Medium Term Note Programme that was established earlier this week. At the same time, CMT had also entered into swap transactions to swap the US dollar proceeds of US$500m into Singapore dollar proceeds of S$699.5m (exchange rate: S$1.399 to US$1) at a S$ fixed interest rate of 3.794% per annum. Proceeds from the issue will be used to refinance existing borrowings, finance investments, asset enhancement works and for general working capital.

Bigger-than-expected issue, but at competitive financing costs. This fixed rate notes issue is the largest done by CMT in recent years and the size of the issue is bigger than what we have hoped for. In our view, separate notes issues with different loan tenures would have reduced the amount of borrowings maturing in 2015 and thus, make refinancing more manageable going forward. With the new issue, CMT will have borrowings of S$799.5m maturing in 2015, which is 29% of its total borrowings maturing between 2011 and 2017. Nevertheless, we think that the size and pricing of the issue are indicators of strong demand and investor confidence in CMT. With the currency swap, CMT will be paying a lower interest rate of 3.794% per annum, which is reasonable in comparison to the financing costs of its recent medium term notes and also within our expectations.

Sufficient cash for Clarke Quay acquisition and AEIs. For the year to date, CMT has raised S$899.5m though its medium term note programs and with its cash holding of S$350.8m, its current liquidity position is more than sufficient to meet the refinancing of its S$440m of borrowings due in 1H10. We expect CMT to use the remaining cash to finance the acquisition of Clarke Quay (S$268m) and the ongoing asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) at Jurong Entertainment Centre (Budgeted capex: S$200.32m) and Raffles City Basement 2 Link (Budgeted capex: S$33.23m).

Maintain BUY. We are not making any changes to our estimates and we maintain our fair value of S$1.93 on CMT. Total return of 14.6% is attractive, taking into consideration the defensiveness of retail mall assets, its strong management team and visible growth pipeline from pending acquisition and AEIs. We maintain our BUY rating on CMT.