Month: May 2011
PLife – CIMB
Removing covert dilution
• In line; maintain Outperform. 1Q11 DPU of 2.36cts meets consensus (24%) and our expectations (23% of FY11 estimate). Our above-consensus estimate assumes S$200m of acquisitions, to be realised in 2H11. 1Q11 DPU grew 14% yoy on the back of contributions from Japanese assets acquired in 2010-11 and higher rentals from Singapore assets boosted by inflation (CPI-pegged rental formula). We maintain our estimates and DDM-based target price of S$1.98 (discount rate 7.2%). PLife REIT trades at 1.22x P/BV and a forward yield of 6%. We expect stock catalysts from earlier-than-expected announcements of accretive acquisitions. In our view, PLife is the best inflation hedge in Singapore and is well positioned to acquire accretively. It also has a clear acquisition pipeline from sponsor Khazanah’s Pantai healthcare chain in Malaysia.
• Taking 100% of manager’s fees in cash. 1Q11 DPU dipped 0.7% qoq despite a flat topline as management had decided to take 100% of the manager’s fees in units from this quarter. Previously, it used to receive 80% in cash and 20% in units. Despite the dip, we are positive on the switch to full cash payment. We believe this removes covert dilution for unitholders, and presents clean DPUs which fully reflect portfolio performances.
• Asset leverage was 34%, unchanged from 4Q10. Debt headroom was about S$270m, assuming asset leverage of up to 45%. We believe any sizeable acquisitions in excess of this would likely be funded by debt and equity.
PLife – DBSV
Life’s resilient even after the earth shook
At a Glance
• 1Q11 DPU of 2.36 Scts (+14% yoy) within expectations
• Assets unaffected and operations continued in Japan; in fact, crisis may open up acquisition opportunities
• High CPI in Singapore bodes well for minimal rental growth rates in Year 5 of lease that will start in Aug’11
• Raised TP marginally to S$1.95 on higher CPI rates expected; Maintain Buy
Comment on Results
1Q11 DPU 2.36 Scts within expectations. 1Q11 DPU of 2.36 Scts (+14.4% yoy) was within our expectations, forming 24% of our full year estimates. Gross revenue grew 15.2% yoy to S$21.5 m, driven by contributions from the 12 new nursing homes acquired from Jun’10 till Jan’11, and higher rents from its Singapore properties due to minimal rent revision (+1.73%). NPI margin moderated slightly to 91.8% arising from expenses related to the 12 new nursing homes. Book closure for dividends is on 13 May, and will be paid on 8 Jun. The REIT manager has elected to receive 100% of its fees in cash, which will have minimal impact on DPU. In fact, we believe this could be positive in the longer term with payout matching the distributable income, and removing dilution, albeit minor.
No damage from earthquakes in Japan. None of its 30 properties in Japan is structurally affected, as all are located outside of the earthquake-affected areas. Operations are also unaffected by the nuclear situation as its nearest asset is 200km from the nuclear plant site. In our view, the uncertainties may present attractive opportunities for asset accumulation.
Poised to benefit as Singapore’s CPI stays up. With Singapore’s CPI rate averaging at c.4.17% since Jul’10, this bodes well for PREIT’s rental reversion in its Year 5 of lease commencing in Aug’11, and will provide a boost to revenues from 4Q11. Our economist forecasts Singapore’s 2011 CPI at 4.2%.
Recommendation
Maintain Buy, TP raised marginally to S$1.95 on higher CPI. Due to the election to receive fees in cash, our FY11F DPU is lowered marginally by c.2%. We raised our DCF-backed TP marginally to S$1.95 to reflect higher CPI rate of 4.2%/3% (prev. 3.2%/ 1%) for 2011/ 12 in our assumptions. Gearing remains healthy at 34.3%. We believe the REIT will continue to provide organic growth, while exploring portfolio expansion opportunities going forward. We have assumed S$200m worth of acquisitions in 2011, funded 70%/30% by equity/debt to maintain its existing gearing ratio of c.35%, empowering PREIT to undertake opportunistic acquisitions.
Sabana – BT
Sabana kindles Gulf interest in Islamic Reits
Dubai aims for first Reit listing within a year, two UAE firms plan offers in M’sia
Persian Gulf companies are planning their first syariah-compliant real-estate investment trusts, after shares in Singapore’s debut offering recovered from the lowest level since it was started in November.
The city-state’s Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial Reit has advanced 2.2 per cent to 94 Singapore cents since the shares reached a low of 92 cents on March 31. The initial offering price was S$1.05. The company said on April 27 it would distribute more income to shareholders than originally planned.
Dubai is aiming to list its Reit on the local exchange within a year, while two United Arab Emirates companies plan offerings in Malaysia, which pioneered the industry in 2006.
Asia may see at least one new Islamic property trust listing this year as funds seek assets that comply with Islam’s ban on receiving interest or investing in casinos and bars, said HSBC Amanah, the syariah-compliant unit of Europe’s largest bank.
‘We can expect investments in trusts generally to see more activity over the coming months,’ Kuala Lumpur-based Oz Ahmed, associate director of wholesale banking at HSBC Amanah, said in an interview on Tuesday. ‘The market should expect another syariah-compliant trust in real estate, and quite a lot of pipeline, discussions and increased interest across this industry.’
Singapore’s Sabana, the world’s biggest publicly traded Islamic Reit, is the republic’s sole trust complying with religious principles. Malaysia has three listed syariah-compliant vehicles. Malaysia’s 14 Reits, which include Islamic and non-Islamic, have a combined market worth of US$3.4 billion, or 12 per cent of Singapore’s US$29.3 billion, according to a March 17 report by property consultant CB Richard Ellis.
The city-state’s ‘developed’ Reit market may encourage more Islamic issuance, Pratik Burman Ray, a senior property analyst at HSBC Securities Singapore Pte, said on April 15. Industrial property prices in Singapore will probably increase 5 per cent to 8 per cent this year, he said.
‘Singapore has a far more sophisticated regulatory framework for Reits and that naturally puts the market ahead of the rest,’ said Mr Ray. ‘If you want to attract Middle East investors, you have to offer size and Singapore has that.’
Sabana, which invests in properties such as warehouses and high-technology office space, raised S$664.4 million from the November initial offering. It had S$19.3 million in income that can be distributed to shareholders in the period Nov 26 to March 31, 2 per cent more than planned, the company said on April 27.
Emirates Reit, Dubai’s first Islamic real-estate investment trust, was established in November and may be publicly traded on Nasdaq Dubai, Marwan Ahmad Lutfi, deputy chief executive officer at the Dubai International Financial Centre Authority, said on April 10.
Two developers from the UAE are planning to list Islamic Reits worth RM2 billion (S$826 million) in Malaysia this year, Raja Teh Maimunah, global head of Islamic markets at Bursa Malaysia Bhd, said on Feb 23.
In an Islamic Reit, payments to investors are based on rental income or dividends. Syariah-compliant trusts prohibit income from properties involved in gambling, financial services based on interest payments, hotels and bars.
‘Reits resonate well with Islamic finance because they’re backed by underlying assets,’ said HSBC Amanah’s Oz. ‘There’s an element of risk sharing because investors are taking a risk on the portfolio of assets.’
Malaysia’s Islamic Reits had a market value of RM2.3 billion at the end of 2010, according to an e-mailed reply to questions from Bursa Malaysia, the stock exchange regulator.
‘Bursa Malaysia has received interest from foreign issuers to list their Reits, including Islamic Reits here,’ the regulator said. ‘Any foreign assets seeking listing on Bursa Malaysia will have to go through a due diligence process and assessment by the regulators prior to approval.’
Malaysia is the world’s biggest market for Islamic bonds, which pay returns on assets to comply with the religion’s ban on interest. Sales of Malaysian-currency sukuk rose to RM11.4 billion this year, compared with RM6.7 billion in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Global issuance increased to US$5.2 billion, from US$4.4 billion in the same period last year.
‘Malaysia is a more regulated and mature market, and from an investor perspective, it’s one of the fully Islamic integrated markets in the world,’ Riad Saad, Islamic product manager at the Treasury and Investment Department of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, said in an interview on April 19. ‘There is government support and liquidity, and it has all the capabilities of making Reit launches successful.’
Syariah-compliant bonds returned 4.4 per cent this year, according to the HSBC/Nasdaq Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index. Debt in developing markets gained 2.5 per cent, JPMorgan Chase & Co’s EMBI Global Diversified Index shows.
The difference between the average yield for sukuk and the London interbank offered was little changed at 242 basis points on Tuesday, according to the HSBC/Nasdaq Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index.
Average yields fell to 4.14 per cent, the lowest since June 2005. The spread between Malaysia’s dollar sukuk and the Dubai Department of Finance’s 6.396 per cent note due November 2014 narrowed three basis points to 235, Bloomberg data show.
Malaysia can play catch up with Singapore by ‘playing its syariah card,’ said Kuala Lumpur-based Stewart Labrooy, chief executive officer at Axis Real Estate Investment Trust. Axis-Reit, which sold 98.4 million shares at RM1.25 when it listed on the Malaysian stock exchange in August 2005, converted to an Islamic property trust in 2008.
The price of Axis-Reit rose 0.4 per cent to RM2.38 this year as of 4:17 pm in Singapore, according to Bloomberg data. The company will list a syariah-compliant property trust valued at more than RM3 billion, Reuters reported on its website on March 11, citing three unidentified people familiar with the matter. Mr Labrooy declined to comment on the report when contacted by Bloomberg.
‘People wanting to invest in syariah products in Malaysia will have a very high degree of comfort in investing in Islamic Reits here as there is a high degree of transparency, syariah governance and compliance,’ Mr Labrooy said. He forecasts growth in industrial property prices in Malaysia of 5 per cent to 10 per cent this year.
The Al-‘Aqar KPJ Reit, listed on Malaysia’s bourse since August 2006, was the first publicly traded Islamic property trust in Asia. Al-‘Aqar, managed by hospital operator KPJ Healthcare Bhd, raised RM179.3 million from the share sale. The price climbed 2.7 per cent to RM1.15 this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Al-Hadharah Boustead Reit, listed on the local stock exchange on Feb 8, 2007, raised RM229.7 million through an initial offering. The shares dropped 1.4 per cent in 2011 to RM1.42. The trust owns and invests mainly in plantation assets in Malaysia including palm oil.
Malaysia’s ‘focused’ approach to its Islamic finance industry will offer the nation an advantage in luring more listings from foreign companies, including those from the Persian Gulf, Bernard Ching, the head of research at Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage services company ECM Libra Capital Sdn Bhd, said in an interview on April 19.
‘Malaysia has the infrastructure in place, whether it is financing, the investor base or expertise, including syariah advisory,’ he said. — Bloomberg
Fortune – BT
Fortune Reit Q1 DPU up 5.5%
Income available for distribution was HK$112.8m
SINGAPORE-LISTED Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust (Fortune Reit) yesterday reported distribution per unit (DPU) of 6.73 HK cents for the first quarter ended March 31, up 5.5 per cent from 6.38 HK cents for the corresponding period last year.
The DPU represents an annualised distribution yield of 7 per cent.
Income available for distribution was HK$112.8 million (S$17.8 million), up 6.2 per cent from HK$106.2 million a year earlier.
Total revenue saw a 4.6 per cent increase to HK$218.8 million, attributed mainly to the improved performance of the property portfolio.
Net property income rose 3.3 per cent to HK$161 million.
The occupancy rate across Fortune Reit’s portfolio of 14 retail malls stood at 97.8 per cent as at March 31, 2011.
Passing rent increased by 7.6 per cent year on year to HK$29.40 per square foot, while rental reversions for renewals stood at 17.4 per cent.
Fortune Reit refinanced its entire loan facilities of HK$3.1 billion. The new facilities, at an aggregate principal amount of HK$3.8 billion, comprise a HK$2.83 billion term loan facility and a HK$790 million revolving credit facility.
Planned asset enhancement initiatives at City One Plaza is expected to commence in the third quarter of this year. The project deadline is targeted for end 2012. The cost of the project is estimated to be HK$100 million.
With Hong Kong’s GDP increasing 6.8 per cent in 2010 and forecast to expand by another 4 to 5 per cent in 2011, this augurs well for consumer confidence, said Fortune Reit in a statement yesterday.
Moving forward, ARA Asset Management (Fortune) will focus on retaining quality tenants particularly in Ma On Shan Plaza and The Metropolis Mall, where some 50 per cent of the tenants are up for renewal this year.
Fortune Reit closed down HK$0.01 yesterday at HK$3.86.
TCT – BT
Treasury China beats Q1 forecast
Net property income of $12.45m also 3.5% better than that for Q4, 2010
TREASURY China Trust (TCT) said that it achieved a net property income of $12.45 million for the first quarter ended March 31, exceeding its forecast by 8.6 per cent.
This is a 3.5 per cent improvement over the fourth quarter of 2010. But earnings per share came to 2.7 cents, compared with 8.7 cents for the fourth quarter of last year.
First-quarter gross revenue for the business trust hit $19.45 million, 1.9 per cent above forecast but 4.9 per cent below the fourth-quarter mark.
TCT yesterday reaffirmed its earlier intention to declare a distribution per unit of 10 cents for 2011 with a payment of five cents per unit each to be made on June 30 and on Dec 31.
There are no comparative figures from a year ago as TCT was listed only last June by way of introduction, after taking over China Real Estate Opportunities that was formerly listed on London’s Alternative Investment Market.
TCT said that its portfolio committed occupancy came to 93.3 per cent at the end of the first quarter, outperforming the target of 87.9 per cent for 2011, and beating the 2010 year-end occupancy level of 90.9 per cent.
It has also entered into formal negotiations to dispose of a majority stake in its Central Plaza asset and is in separate discussions to acquire a Shanghai-based retail asset.
TCT’s current portfolio comprises Central Plaza, City Center and Treasury Building in Shanghai and 74,000-square-metre development space in Beijing International Logistics Park.
It just completed an acquisition that provided a 55 per cent interest in Central Avenue Mall in Qingdao. TCT has also obtained regulatory approval to acquire 100 per cent of Shanghai Huai Hai Mall and a US$50 million loan from Citic International Bank to assist with the acquisition.
Richard Barrett, chairman of TCT, said that he expects the completion of the Central Avenue Mall purchase in Qingdao to provide a strong revenue stream from the second quarter onwards.
The group noted that leasing activities in the Shanghai office market remained active in the first quarter, with strong demand from multinational corporations, while demand for retail space is mainly driven by mid-market fast fashion retailers.
Some 33 leases were negotiated in the first quarter ended March 31, comprising new lettings and renewals. They produce an aggregate per square metre rental representing a 12.8 per cent increase over the expiring leases.
Among the new leases were a three-year lease to Eastern Life Insurance in Treasury Building and a 10-year lease pre-commitment from Marks & Spencer at TCT’s City Center Extension development.
TCT said that it is confident that ‘the retail and office sector will continue to perform well for the remainder of 2011’.
TCT units closed trading 1.6 per cent lower at $1.87 yesterday.