CMT – OCBC

Acquisition of the Jurong Gateway site

$S969m tender award. CapitaMall Trust (CMT) has been successfully awarded the Jurong Gateway site, located at Boon Lay Way by URA on 30 May at a tender price of S$969m (S$1,1012 psf ppr). This was a joint tender by CMT, CMA and CapitaLand, of which CMT has a 30% stake in the JV. The total development cost is expected to be about S$1.5b (S$1,566 psf ppr).The land parcel has a prime location next to both Jurong East MRT station and Jurong East bus interchange. Jurong is slated to be the largest regional centre in Singapore for commercial developments outside the city centre (under URA’s Jurong Lake District Masterplan). Jurong Gateway is about 2.5 times the size of Tampines Regional Centre.

“3-in-1” Mega Mall in Jurong. CMT will be building a 25- storey retail-cum-office property at the new site, adjacent to another upcoming Lend Lease office/retail building, scheduled for completion in 2014. With two other CMT malls in the vicinity (IMM and JCube), CMT’s selling proposition is to create a “3-in-1” mega mall in Jurong, offering 1m sqft of retail NLA within three minutes’ drive from each other in Singapore’s soon-tobe largest regional hub. CMT intends to finance the development by internal funds and debt.

Downgrade to HOLD on valuation grounds. We have factored in contributions from both the retail mall and office building into our valuation, commencing on Dec 2013 and Jun 2014 respectively. Our total development costs for CMT works out to about S$469m, which accounts for 5.8% of CMT’s total assets as of 31 Mar (within the property fund guideline of 10% development cap). CMT has guided that it is targeting rentals of S$16-S$18 psf pm and S$7-S$8 psf pm for the retail and office segments respectively, with an initial yield-on-cost of 6%. According to our model, these targets are fairly tight and require somewhat vigorous occupancy rates in the first year to attain the desired 6% yield. In addition, unlike the Tampines Regional Centre, which is hailed as the “financial hub in the east”, the Jurong precinct does not have a strong financial institution catchment base. We therefore remain wary of (1) the office take-up in that area, with the nearby International Business Park, JTC summit and iHub buildings offering cheaper alternatives and (2) “retail tenants’ fatigue” among the four malls within a 500m radius from the MRT station. Moreover, CMT’s share price has appreciated 6.5% since our last report dated 21 Apr. Downgrade to HOLD on valuation grounds with an increased fair value of S$2.05 (prev: S$2.02). We will turn buyers at S$1.93.