FCT – DMG

Drop in share price presents buying opportunity

Reiterate our top pick for S-REITs. Against the uncertain outlook revolving around weak US and China data, European debt crisis, and China’s property cooling measures, we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on S-REITs which offer a current dividend yield of 6.9%. Our top pick within the space remains Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) which owns prime suburban malls that are experiencing strong positive rental reversion. Despite the Asset Enhancement Initiatives (AEI) at Causeway Point (CWP) which saw occupancy fell to 69% during 1Q11, FCT’s DPU were not affected much due to contribution from its Northpoint 2 and Yew Tee Point which were acquired in Feb 2010. Backed by 1) strong pre-commitment for CWP’s space being redeveloped under AEI, 2) strong rental reversion, and 3) potential acquisition of Bedok Point in 2H11, we believe FCT is primed for growth at cheap valuation. Maintain BUY with TP of S$1.77 based on DDM (COE: 8.8%; TGR: 2.0%).

CWP AEI expected to be completed by Dec 2012. In addition to positive rental reversion from new leases expected at +11-12%, the progressive completion of CWP AEI will add to FCT’s DPU growth. Construction of CWP is currently 33% completed. Despite full completion requires another 1.5 years, the space undergoing refurbishment has been 99% pre-committed, indicating the strong demand for the mall space. Upon completion, the average rent is projected to rise 20% from S$10.2 to S$12.2, giving rise to ROI of 13.0%.

Undemanding valuation given clear growth profile. At S$1.49, FCT is trading at a yield of 3.8% to Singapore’s 10-year bond yield of 2.3%, which is significantly higher than its pre-crisis mean spread of 1.8%. Coupled with its clear growth profile going forward (positive rental reversion, completion of CWP AEI, and acquisition of Bedok Point), we favour FCT as our top S-REIT pick for 2011.