Author: tfwee
CMT – BT
CapitaLand, CMT need attractive buys to justify rights issues
CASH is king these days, but does any company really need to hold on to $6 billion of it?
CapitaLand, Singapore’s largest property company by market capitalisation, last month announced a fully underwritten one-for-two rights issue to raise $1.84 billion. The developer is in no way hard-up for money – CapitaLand has some $4.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents on hand. After the rights issue, it will have a whopping $6 billion in the kitty.
So was the rights issue really necessary? CapitaLand said that the exercise was ‘pre-emptive’ and that it will provide the company with greater financial capacity to pursue merger and acquisition opportunities that might arise, as well as other investment opportunities. Chief executive Liew Mun Leong also told analysts and media at a briefing on the day the rights issue was announced that there were ‘a number of proposals on the table’ that the developer was studying.
Analysts have been mostly positive on the rights issue, issuing a slew of fresh ‘buy’ calls that sent CapitaLand’s stock soaring 11.4 per cent after the announcement of the issue. And sources have since told BT that the take-up for the sharply discounted rights issue has been good so far, which means that shareholders, at least, are willing to be supportive.
But there is no denying that the rights issue is dilutive. A day after the rights announcement, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2009 and 2010 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 37 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively, to reflect the dilutive impact.
To justify the dilution, CapitaLand has to show that it raised the money for a good reason by making some attractive buys in the not-too-distant future. The rights issue does make the company more financially secure, of course. Other than increasing its war chest to $6 billion, the issue will also reduce CapitaLand’s net gearing to 0.28 times from 0.47 times. But these factors alone are not enough to justify asking shareholders for $1.84 billion, especially at a time when investors themselves are looking to conserve capital.
The same principle applies for CapitaLand’s 29.7 per cent-owned retail trust CapitaMall Trust (CMT), which on the same day as the announcement of its parent’s rights issue said it will raise $1.23 billion in a 9-for-10 rights offer. The market, and analysts, didn’t take this – and the much larger dilution – as well as they did with CapitaLand’s issue, sending CMT’s shares down 6.2 per cent even as CapitaLand’s shares shot up.
‘While widely expected, we believe the rights issue (50 per cent of market cap) was larger and more dilutive than expected,’ said UBS Investment Research. The firm downgraded CMT’s earnings per unit and dividend per unit forecasts by 30-50 per cent post-rights, also taking into account lower net property income, higher interest costs and the repayment of convertible bonds in 2011.
CMT intends to use the bulk of the proceeds to pay off $956.2 million of debt due this year, and reduce its gearing from 43.2 per cent to 29.1 per cent. However, the repayment could have been achieved by refinancing loans, rather than asking investors to fork out another $1.23 billion.
One reason for the fund raising is that by lowering its gearing, the trust will be in a better position to raise funds in future when it needs to make an acquisition. Lim Beng Chee, chief executive of CMT’s manager, said that the trust chose to go with a rights issue rather than look for refinancing for its loans as it was looking at the ‘longer-term’.
But for both CapitaLand and CMT, those vague hints of acquisitions need to be translated into real deals to justify asking shareholders for so much money.
CDL H-Trust – BT
(SINGAPORE) CDL Hospitality Trusts, the hotel operator partly owned by Singapore’s second-biggest property developer City Developments Ltd, is seeking more than $300 million of bank loans by July.
HWT – BT
Hyflux trust’s full-year distribution beats forecast
Second-half 2.79-cent DPU brings year’s distribution to 4.96 cents, against forecast of 4.88 cents
HYFLUX Water Trust yesterday reported distribution per unit (DPU) of 4.96 cents for its first full year of operations, 2 per cent above the forecast of 4.88 cents. This represents a yield of 17.1 per cent based on yesterday’s closing price of 29 cents a unit, or 14 per cent based on its Dec 31 close of 35.5 cents.
DPU for the second half ended Dec 31, after waiver of distributions in respect of sponsor units, was 2.79 cents. Total distributable cash was $10.2 million, among 205.5 million units, excluding sponsor units held by Hyflux Ltd, a Singapore-listed water treatment company that had divested water treatment plants in China to set up the trust.
Without the waiver from Hyflux, full-year distribution would have been 3.4 cents, or 1.56 cents less. Distribution is expected to hit 5.42 cents in 2009, the company said.
Hyflux Water Trust recorded a profit after tax of $10.3 million for the full year, or $3.8 million for the fourth quarter, while revenue hit $54 million, or $9 million for the fourth quarter. Revenue came in 5 per cent above estimates.
The trust holds cash and cash equivalents of $35.6 million.
No comparative results for the previous year were provided as the trust was set up only in November 2007.
Hyflux Trust said bank credit was tightening, which made new acquisitions through debt ‘a major challenge’. Equity financing was ‘currently not attractive’.
China is also likely to be hard hit by the current crisis, the trust noted, but said that guaranteed tariffs and a tariff adjustment mechanism would help to maintain margins.
By the end of last year, the trust’s initial portfolio of water treatment plants had a total designed capacity of 380,000 cubic metres a day, with utilisation volume of 177,000 cubic metres a day.
Adding newly acquired plants, the total design capacity as at end-2008 was 520,000 cubic metres a day, while it currently has right of first refusal on plants from its parent Hyflux with capacity of 945,000 cubic metres a day.
Hyflux said the overall medium to long-term outlook for the global water sector, and China in particular, would be strong.
‘Investment opportunities in the water sector are driven by increasing industrialisation, urbanisation and the (China) government’s policy directives to address the country’s critical water pollution and water shortage issues. With improvement in the global credit and capital markets in the future, HWT will be better positioned to deliver on growth,’ it said.
MapleTree – OCBC
Relative stability
Relative stability. Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have dampened the outlook for the industrial REIT/property sector. This, combined with rising supply, is likely to exert pressure on industrial rents. Compared to the office sector however – which saw a huge spike in rental and capital values over the past couple of years – we expect less downside here. Instead, we believe occupancy will be the key performance driver in the industrial space. We estimate that Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) can maintain a dividend yield of about 10% even with a bear case 80% portfoliowide occupancy scenario (versus 99.6% today). MLT’s suite of sale-andleaseback properties should partially shelter the REIT from lease renewals and occupancy worries. However, about half of the portfolio consists of multi-tenanted buildings that are more exposed to the vagaries of the market. We like MLT’s diversified (81 properties in six countries) and high quality (we expect occupancy to remain higher than average) portfolio.
Equity issue done and dusted. Unlike some other S-REITs who chose to wait and ‘ride out’ the market, MLT went through the pain of raising fresh equity in August 2008. The 3-for-4 rights issue at an issue price of S$0.73, versus current share price of S$0.39, brought in some S$606.7m in proceeds. MLT’s debt-to-asset ratio now stands at 0.385x as of 31 Dec 2008. About S$217m of debt is up for refinancing in 2009 (18.8% of total debt). Of this amount, about S$83m are term facilities maturing this year. The remaining S$135m are working capital lines which are reviewed annually. The manager said that while it expects the working capital lines to be renewed, MLT has sufficient committed lines to meet its entire FY09 debt obligations.
BUY with fair value of 45 cents. We expect cap rates to widen in line with weaker fundamentals. Our SOTP valuation of MLT is S$0.50 – this is equivalent to a 30% fall in capital values against most recent valuations. As we outlined in our Dec 2008 strategy report, we are selective buyers of industrial S-REITs. We expect news flow to be primarily negative over the next few months as the ‘real economy’ – as well as MLT’s tenants and endusers – start feeling the full impact of the global recession. However, we believe MLT can deliver reasonably stable income to unitholders over the next two years. On this basis, we ascribe a 10% discount to our SOTP value to reach a fair value estimate of S$0.45. We restart coverage of MLT with a BUY rating.