Office REITs – DBS
All-time high for office property. Office asset values continue to heat up, with transacted prices hitting new highs and now past the last peak, driven by property funds active in asset transactions. With the previous high for office assets set by the sale of 7 floors of Prudential Towers by Straits Steamship Land (Keppel Land), a record of S$2,200 psf set in 1996, office capital values have now hit an all-time high with latest sale of 1 Finlayson Green by Hong Leong to UK-based property fund Develica at unit price of S$2,650 psf (S$2,470 assuming full efficiency). This transaction is hot on the heels of the recent sale of Parakou Building at Robinson Road for S$2,013 psf.
Asset revaluation across office REITs set to continue. Along with the latest year-end revaluation, the Singapore office portfolio for S-REITs has been revalued upwards (CCT +10%, Suntec +30%, K-REIT +7.3%, Allco +7%). We expect asset reflation for office S-REITs to continue, with growth in average rents to boost office asset appraisals.
Boom and bane for office Reits. Office REITs are direct beneficiaries of asset reflation from potential upward revaluation based on market comparison of market transactions. However, with the current bullish outlook for Singapore office rentals, price expectations of asset owners have also escalated, compressing physical yields to lower levels (below 3% for the case of the Temasek Tower acquisition by MGPA). Yield accretiveness of acquisitions are reduced, and coupled with strong competition for assets from private property funds with more flexibility and less stringent regulations on investment and access to funds, S-REITs in our view are currently priced out of the market for commercial assets.
Overseas expansion would be a natural course to drive acquisition growth. K-REIT stands out in asset reflation scenario. While we prefer the DCF approach in valuing S-REITs because it takes into account the intrinsic cashflows generation ability of the underlying assets, RNAV approach could also possibly breach the gap, as it factors in asset pricing by market players acquiring assets at capital values pricing in future rental growth prospects. In an asset reflation scenario, K-REIT stands out with potential upside of 93% versus CCT (-2.7%), Suntec (+7.3%) and Allco (+48%). We have BUY recommendation for K-REIT with target price of S$3.70 per unit based on DCF estimates.