Surprise rule change on REIT M&A. In our 2007 strategy report dated 11 Dec 2006 “M&A theme a strong possibility in 2007/08”, we had articulated that M&A could be another avenue for growth. This scenario is now coming closer to reality with the Securities Industry Council’s (SIC) surprise announcement on Friday that it will extend the Singapore Code of Takeover & Mergers to REITs. This move is significant as it means that there is now clarity on M&A rules for S-REITs. Now anyone who acquires 30% or more of any REIT must make a general offer (GO) for the remaining units. Furthermore, anyone who owns 30%-50% of any REIT and acquires a further 1% of the units must also make a GO for the rest of the units.

Market getting more competitive. The key issue with the high-beta REITs such as CCT, MLT, CMT, ART, AREIT is the ability of the managers to meet market growth expectation. This is particularly so in a property up-cycle where fewer properties are available to be acquired. Some are venturing overseas, while others remain domestic focus (AREIT, Cambridge). Another avenue for asset size growth is via own development (AREIT, CMT), but this is a riskier strategy and is constrained by REIT guidelines. However with the SIC rule change on M&A, the REIT manager has another avenue to meet market’s growth expectations

A function of risk appetite. In our opinion, the market has segmented SREITs into two camps, i.e. REITs with high and low growth expectations. The key differentiating factor is the P/B ratio. We see potential for both camps, and the choice for investors for either is a function of their risk appetite. The high-beta REITs are those with high P/B ratio. As the market has already priced in growth, the risks are higher. On the other hand lowbeta REITs, we see minimal downside risks. In fact with them now being eyed as targets for acquisitions, we see a strong upside possibilities.

Potential winners in M&A. We see the likely winners in the new M&A rules to be those trading with higher yield and low price to book relative to their peers in the same sector. We see these REITs to be Allco, Cambridge, Macarthur, MM Prime and First REIT. (Winston Liew)