CMT – OCBC

Sailing through choppy waters

Strong REIT managers will shine in difficult times. The completion of 651,000 sqm of retail space between 3Q08 and 2011 would inevitably put downward pressure on rental rates. But during the slump in retail rental rates in 2001-2003, CMT had been able to raise its rental rates through asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) and space reconfiguration despite challenging operating condition. As such, we think strong retail mall managers can still ride out the tough period through well-executed asset management and enhancement.

Expecting a smooth transition in stewardship. Last week, Mr Pua Seck Guan, the CEO of CMT, announced his resignation with effect from 1st November 2008 and Mr Lim Beng Chee will take over Mr Pua’s role as the new CEO. Transition in stewardship should be smooth as Mr Pua had already made known to CapitaLand of his intention to pursue personal interest since last year and this would have given CapitaLand ample time to prepare for the transition.

Growth unlikely to be derailed with management change. Mr Pua had been instrumental in the growth of CMT since its IPO. With his departure, concerns have been raised on the outlook of CMT, which was evidenced in the sharp decline in CMT’s share price after the announcement. We think such concerns have been overdone. With plans for future AEIs in place, we do not think the change in management will derail the progress of AEIs going forward.

Yield discount attributable to size difference. While CMT is still trading at FY08 yield discounts of 1.3% to 2.0% to other retail REITs, we note that this yield discount correlates to the size of the REIT and this is also prevalent in office and industrial REIT sectors. For CMT, this yield discount is expected to narrow in FY09 with the increase in DPU.

Fair value lowered to S$3.05. We do not see significant change in the fundamentals of CMT’s retail malls, but we are lowering our fair value to S$3.05 (previously S$3.21) after raising our office cap rate from 4.5% to 5% and lowering our office rental forecasts, in line with our cautious stance for the sector. Share price could stay depressed for a while as the market awaits further clarity on the direction of CMT under the new CEO and yield spread over 10-year bond could stay wide under the tight credit market condition. We are keeping our BUY rating.