Category: ESR

 

Cambridge Reits – CL

CAMBRIDGE REITS, cl remains a BUY with target price $1.14 (from $1.04)

– As the property sector continues to outperform the market year-to-date, we believe there is still value in the industrial space, which has been lagging the whole property sector in general. Cambridge Industrial Trust (CReit) remains our top pick in the industrial space, offering good acquisition growth domestically as well as overseas; and it also offers an added M&A angle of being a good potential target going forward. BUY.

– 7th acquisition announced since listing. CReit has announced another acquisition this month. Though a relatively small asset worth only S$5.8m, this is CReit.s seventh acquisition since listing boosting its portfolio value from S$520m at listing to S$686m (+32%). This is an industrial and warehouse asset that sits on 4,958sqm of land with a rentable area of 4,705 sqm. We estimate the asset yield to be 7.3%. The lease terms are 10 years with the typical 5% rental escalation on the commencement of the third, fifth, seventh and ninth year. Presscrete Engineering Pte Ltd, which provides specialist engineering servises will be the tenant for the asset.

– Industrial segment a laggard to the property sector . The industrial space remains a laggard to the property sector largely due to the nature of its rental reversions, which are limited to 1.5-2.5% growth YoY; unlike office or retail rents which have risen from between 10% to 60% YoY. However, we believe CReit is still a strong buy because of its acquisition potential. It has CWT, C&P, YCH and Mitsui as strong credible partners to feed its pipeline both locally as well as overseas.

– Growth via acquisitions; expect equity raising . Additionally, Cambridge has signed a total of S$108m MOU.s (Memorandum Of Understanding). The Reit has obtained a credit rating of BBB- from S&P, which allows it to gear up to 60%. Post the latest acquisition, Cambridge.s gearing stands at 50%. It can acquire another S$90m of assets before its gearing hits 56%, at which point we would expect Cambridge to raise new equity to achieve its targeted S$500m worth of acquisitions in 2007.

– Valuations undemanding . a laggard to Industrial Reit peers . Our target price of S$1.14, which gives 19% upside, is derived from pegging a 5.5% required return on CReit.s FY08CL DPU of 6.26c. CReit trades at a about 25% discount to MapleTree Logistics (MLT). We believe it deserves to trade at least on par with MLT given its acquisition pipeline domestically and overseas. It is our top pick in the industrial space.

Cambridge – SGX

CIT ACQUIRES 120 PIONEER ROAD AND 7 UBI CLOSE FOR A TOTAL OF S$47.0 MILLION

1. Cambridge Industrial Trust Management Limited (the “Manager”), the Manager of Cambridge Industrial Trust (“CIT”), has identified 120 Pioneer Road and 7 Ubi Close (the “Properties”) to be acquired by CIT at a purchase price of S$26,500,000 and
S$20,500,000 respectively (the “Acquisitions”).

2. In connection with the Acquisitions, RBC Dexia Trust Services Singapore Limited, as trustee of CIT (the “Trustee”), has entered into separate conditional put and call option agreements (the “Option Agreements”) with Compact Metal Industries Ltd (“Compact”), a SGX-listed company and Group Exklusiv Pte Ltd (“Group Exklusiv”) respectively, to acquire the two Properties.

3. The acquisitions are expected to be financed by debt or alternative funding sources in line with the Manager’s capital management strategy in optimizing the funding of the Trust. The above Property will be accretive to CIT’s distributable income.

4. Information On The Properties (Extracts)

120 Pioneer Road
– Purchase Price : S$26.5 million
– Leasehold estate of 30 years + 28 years wef 16 Feb1997
– Lease term : 7 years with 5% rental escalations on the commencement of the third
and fifth year.
DPU Impact : +0.0557 cents

7 Ubi Close
– Purchase Price : S$20.5 million
– Leasehold estate of 30 years wef 1 Aug 1994
– Lease term : 7 years with 5% rental escalations on the commencement of the third
and fifth year.
DPU Impact : +0.1687 cents

Note : DPU Impact is based on simple annualisation on the audited results for the financial period ended 31 December 2006 and the assumption that CIT had purchased, held and operated the respective property for the same annualised period based on long term gearing ratio of 40%.

Source : SGX

SREITS – OCBC

Singapore REIT: Our view on M&A theme now a possibility

Surprise rule change on REIT M&A. In our 2007 strategy report dated 11 Dec 2006 “M&A theme a strong possibility in 2007/08”, we had articulated that M&A could be another avenue for growth. This scenario is now coming closer to reality with the Securities Industry Council’s (SIC) surprise announcement on Friday that it will extend the Singapore Code of Takeover & Mergers to REITs. This move is significant as it means that there is now clarity on M&A rules for S-REITs. Now anyone who acquires 30% or more of any REIT must make a general offer (GO) for the remaining units. Furthermore, anyone who owns 30%-50% of any REIT and acquires a further 1% of the units must also make a GO for the rest of the units.

Market getting more competitive. The key issue with the high-beta REITs such as CCT, MLT, CMT, ART, AREIT is the ability of the managers to meet market growth expectation. This is particularly so in a property up-cycle where fewer properties are available to be acquired. Some are venturing overseas, while others remain domestic focus (AREIT, Cambridge). Another avenue for asset size growth is via own development (AREIT, CMT), but this is a riskier strategy and is constrained by REIT guidelines. However with the SIC rule change on M&A, the REIT manager has another avenue to meet market’s growth expectations

A function of risk appetite. In our opinion, the market has segmented SREITs into two camps, i.e. REITs with high and low growth expectations. The key differentiating factor is the P/B ratio. We see potential for both camps, and the choice for investors for either is a function of their risk appetite. The high-beta REITs are those with high P/B ratio. As the market has already priced in growth, the risks are higher. On the other hand lowbeta REITs, we see minimal downside risks. In fact with them now being eyed as targets for acquisitions, we see a strong upside possibilities.

Potential winners in M&A. We see the likely winners in the new M&A rules to be those trading with higher yield and low price to book relative to their peers in the same sector. We see these REITs to be Allco, Cambridge, Macarthur, MM Prime and First REIT. (Winston Liew)

Cambridge – Announcement

Completion of Acquisition of Armorcoat International Building Located At 361 Ubi Road 3 Singapore 408664 for S$18.0 Million

1. Cambridge Industrial Trust Management Limited (the “Manager”), the Manager of Cambridge Industrial Trust (“CIT”), is pleased to announce the completion of the acquisition of Armorcoat International Building located at No. 361 Ubi Road 3 Singapore 408664 (the “Property”) today for a purchase price of S$18.0 million.

2. RBC Dexia Trust Services Singapore Limited as trustee of CIT (the “Trustee”), has on 8 June 2007 exercised the call option under the put and call option agreement (the “Option Agreement”), entered into with Armorcoat International Pte Ltd (the Vendor) on 15 December 2006.

3. Pursuant to the Trustee’s exercise of the call option under the Option Agreement, the Trustee and Vendor have entered into the sales and purchase agreement for the Property and completed the sales and purchase today.

4. The purchase price and other acquisition costs of the Property are fully funded by debt.

5. Located along Ubi Road 3, the property comprises a five-storey industrial building with a basement carkpark level and a roof top swimming pool. It has a gross floor area of 8,931.0 sqm, and it is situated on land area of 4,563.7 sqm. The land is on leasehold title of 30 years with an option to renew for a further 30 years which expires on 31 January 2057. Armorcoat International Pte Ltd and Chartered World Academy Pte Ltd will jointly leaseback the Property for 10 years, with 7% rental escalations on the commencement of the fourth and seventh year.

6. CIT is a real estate investment trust constituted by the Trust Deed entered into on 31 March 2006 between the manager of CIT and RBC Dexia Trust Services Singapore Limited as the Trustee of CIT. Since its listing on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST) on 25 July 2006 (the Listing Date), CIT has an asset portfolio comprising 30 properties worth S$640 million, all of which are currently located in Singapore. Cambridge Industrial Trust Management Limited, the Manager of CIT, is a joint venture
between Cambridge Real Estate Investment Management Pte Ltd (CREIM), CWT Limited (CWT), a Singapore incorporated company listed on the Main Board of the SGXST which is engaged in the business of cargo logistics and distribution, and Mitsui & Co., Ltd (Mitsui). Mitsui is one of Japans largest business conglomerates and they listed Japan Logistics Fund, Inc., the first REIT dedicated to investing in logistics facilities, in May 2005. 60% of the issued share capital of the Manager is held by CREIM, 20% is held by Mitsui, and the remaining 20% is held by CWT.

7. In relation to the initial public offering of CIT, the joint global co-ordinators and joint financial advisers were ABN AMRO Rothschild and CLSA Merchant Bankers Limited, and the joint lead underwriters and bookrunners were ABN AMRO Rothschild and CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd. The public offer co-ordinator and sub-placement agent was Philip Securities Pte Ltd.

Singapore Reits – UBS

Global Equity Research PT adjustments following rise in spot risk free rate

Event – PT revisions downwards by average -1.8%
We have moved the spot risk free in our DCF model to 2.9% for yr0-10, from 2.7% following recent interest movements. Our terminal rate (yr10+) is unchanged at 3.6%.

Impact – Downgrade CCT and SUN

This move lifts our price targets downwards by -1.8% on average. Due to recent price movements we have moved CCT from a Neutral 2 to a Reduce 2 and SUN from a Buy 1 to a Neutral 1. We believe the office rental uptrend has been largely priced in and it is increasingly difficult for these REITs to make yield-accretive acquisitions domestically.

Action – Overweight Industrial & Retail

Our key picks among the SREITs are 1. Mapletree (acquisition upside potential not priced in) 2. Cambridge (re-rating potential & possible acquisition upside) =3. Domestic retail – FCT and CMT (organic growth likely to continue to exceed expectations). We maintain a Buy 2 on KREIT due to the strong expected rental reversions which we believe have not been priced in.

Valuation

The sector continues to offer relatively attractive pricing currently, with a 4.3% CY’07 yield, 6.0% ’07-12 DPU growth, and 7.5% upside to our price target. We recognise the expected S$5bn+ of capital raising in 2007 ($945m YTD) is likely to provide a moderate headwind.